STORMS

Disturbances are healthy for ecosystems, and an increase in disturbances can lead to higher biodiversity.  However too much disturbance can be very stressful on an organism, which can become more susceptible to pests and disease.  This could be the fate of mangroves as well.

Mangrove forests, growing on tropical coasts, already live in the face of hurricanes, tsunamis, and heavy rains.  This means the forests are in a series of succession states but they are able to recovery naturally within a decades (Krauss et al, 2009).  Some species of mangrove, like the red mangrove Rhizophora mangle, seem to do better in high disturbance areas than others and may dominate in the future (Krauss et al, 2009). Instead of a loss of mangroves overall, there could be a shift in their species composition and forest structure.

Both outcomes are expected but since mangroves are already used to intense storms, the increase does not seem likely to make a substantial negative impact on mangroves and the positive coupling in Figure 2 should dominate.  The outlook is good that mangroves will be able to protect coasts from storms in the future.